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Kerry Sheridan/AFP/Getty Images (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points. Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] It did go for John Kerry in 2004, though, when Bush won the state, so let's see if Monroe retains its bellwether status beyond two elections or if it was just a cheeseburger in paradise. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. Will That Last?]. There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. TIP: In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. The more people can work out and see for themselves that the data clearly indicates a different outcome, the better. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). There are 391 such counties. Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. Trump won 18 of the 19. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. We believe this was a mistake. 9. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Not a bad streak. But in 2020, 18 of these 19 bellwether counties voted for former President Donald Trump. It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! Recently, though, social media users have shared a meme with statistics that they claim discredits his victory. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. What are your thoughts on this article? Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. Lets find a coin, and flip it. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. . Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Have information that relates to fraud in this election? Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . The divisions were everywhere. The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. hide caption. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. 11. Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. A Trump win is probably out of the question in a county thats home to Des Moines and the state capitol -- he finished third here in the caucuses behind first-place finisher Rubio and runner-up Cruz -- but he will go a long way toward carrying the state if he can keep it close. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. A Changing America Faces A Stark Choice This Election. Contributors wanted David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. 108,000 people. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Ryan Matsumoto is a contributing analyst for Inside Elections. She says that previously, "when there was a presidential election, people are watching, paying attention, and as soon as the president is elected, they forget [about politics] until it's election time again". Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. (Sorry, not sorry.) Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. our Gitlab account where you can "These counties, they're not real representations of America," says Mr Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics. First, what are bellwether counties? In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Election night is going to be information overload. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. Its also loaded with government contractors and defense companies hit hard by the sequester. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. The pattern has become clear between the last two presidential elections and governor's race early results from rural counties show Republicans up, but Northern Virginia counties, especially Fairfax, have more than made up the difference. Clinton will win Democratic Clark County, the states population hub and home to Las Vegas. Found an error on our site? Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. With demographic change in the Research Triangle area, though, it's possible for Clinton to win without this smaller county. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. (Go to the bottom of the page. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. Want to dive deeper? 10. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton. The US Election Integrity Plan contains further news, analysis, videos and practical guides to getting involved. In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. If Trump wants to win the state, he has to start with a win here and make up the rest of the margin elsewhere. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. 8. If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. Watauga has gone for. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country.